000 AXNT20 KNHC 271735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 16W FROM 3N TO 10N...MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN TWO DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N16W 2N35W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 4.5N28W 5N42.5W LINE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE WEST ATLANTIC... A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 15N84W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED UP TO 8 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 23N WIDENING TO 10 DEGREES NORTH OF 23N. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER FLORIDA...THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS ROUGHLY THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE GULF WITH A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MOST OF MEXICO NORTH OF 20N. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... RIDGING ALOFT DOMINATES THE FLOW IN THIS PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N70W TO JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH 25N62W TO NEAR 32N58W. THIS FEATURE IS CAPPED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET ORIGINATING NEAR JAMAICA TO 26N70W TO 32N60W TO 32N50W. WINDS ARE STRONGEST NORTH OF 24N WITH CLOUD DRIFT WINDS IN THE 55 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A PERSISTENT LONG LIVED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N53W TO 24N66W AND THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A LARGE AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN THREE TO FOUR DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF A 31N57W 23N69W 16N75W LINE. DEEPEST CONVECTION LIES OVER THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 74W N OF 14N. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 27N62W WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANOTHER SURFACE FEATURE IS A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED FROM 20N79W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12.5N78.5W. QUIKSCAT IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING INDICATES WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER. REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM 29N44W NORTHWARD TO 32N45W...MOVING E ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM AN UNUSUAL LOOKING SHARP RIDGE ALOFT HAS ITS AXIS FROM 28N34W THROUGH 32N33W TO NEAR 42N28W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N26W TO 18N40W TO 13N56W. THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING S ABOUT 10 KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA WITH THE 1016 MB ISOBAR EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS 4N. A JET AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 10N50W TO 17N30W TO THE AFRICA COAST AT 26N. A RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS E OF 35W WITH THE AXIS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 10N. $$ CAB