000 AXNT20 KNHC 261103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... FROM 8N/9N ALONG THE SIERRA LEONE COAST...TO 5N20W 4N30W 5N40W 6N50W...SKIRTING THE COAST OF SURINAME TO 6N59W IN GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...AND WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 3N23W 3N33W 8N44W 7N60W. THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N84W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE EAST OF 90W...AND NORTHWEST OF 23N80W 28N70W. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COVER MEXICO... TEXAS...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W...UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH REACHES ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT NEAR 19N106W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALREADY IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. THE ONLY AREA OF ACTIVE PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 29N101W...ABOUT 110 NM EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN IN AREAS OF WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 92W AND 110W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 86W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N85 18N86W TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N85W IN EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR THE NICARAGUA BORDER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE 27N84W GULF OF MEXICO-TO-YUCATAN CHANNEL TROUGH REACHES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 79W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W BECAUSE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N62W TO 19N69W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... A LARGE AND WOUND-UP DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ONE BRANCH OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES OVER 32N52W TO 27N53W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO 23N62W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N62W TO THE WATERS OFF THE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N70W 24N62W 26N55W BEYOND 32N48W... AND FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N22W TO 27N26W 23N32W 15N40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N49W 23N62W STATIONARY FRONT. $$ MT