000
AXNT20 KNHC 251758
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 4N30W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 4W-8W...AND 
FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 11W-14W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-29W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 30W-34W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 50W-60W.    

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ONSHORE 
FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO HAS RAIN ALONG THE 
FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS FROM 21N-26N. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER TEXAS ALONG 34N98W 30N98W 28N100W 
MOVING E.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER TEXAS 
FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 96W-99W.  ELY SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO 
ADVECTING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE 
FLORIDA KEYS.  IN GENERAL...A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT ELY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO.   
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N 
FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N AND E OF 92W 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO W OF 92W...AND ALSO S OF 20N.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 
HOURS.  TROPICAL ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND 
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA 
KEYS...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM CENTRAL CUBA 
TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N80W 16N85W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 
80W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-81W.  10-15 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER 
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W.  ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER N 
VENEZUELA AND THE E CARIBBEAN SEA.  WLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF 
VIRGINIA NEAR 35N74W.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS N OF 
15N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N50W 24N60W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-57W.  A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUERTO 
RICO NEAR 18N68W.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N33W.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  A PATCH 
OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 5N-25N E OF 
45W TO AFRICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N32W.  ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W.    

$$
FORMOSA