000 AXNT20 KNHC 221758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N30W 5N40W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 13W-16W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 19W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 24W-26W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 42W-50W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 50W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 15-20 KT ELY WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 30N95W MOVING E. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST S OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 90W-95W MOVING E. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE TO MISSISSIPPI AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL ELY SURFACE FLOW TO ADVECT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA FROM W CUBA TO PANAMA ALONG 22N82W 15N83W 9N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 76W-79W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N90W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE NWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A BAND OF THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 65W-85W MOVING RAPIDLY E. EXPECT RAN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N57W 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 24N64W 20N73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 62W-72W. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N35W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-50W. A PATCH OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 5N-25N E OF 30W TO AFRICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N41W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N16W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 480 NM OF THE CENTER. $$ FORMOSA