000 AXNT20 KNHC 201822 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 10N14W 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT THE BORDER WITH FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 2N53W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N16W 8N17W 5N19W 4N22W 5N27W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS FROM 1.5N TO 2.5W BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 6W AND 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST TO 60-90 NM INLAND BETWEEN 50W IN BRAZIL AND 55W IN GUYANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 55W... A SURFACE TROUGH CURVING ALONG 24N85W 26N90W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGED OF FASTER WIND SPEEDS AND LINES OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE LINES OF CLOUDS. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N69W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 23N82W JUST OFF THE CUBA COAST IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N67W 28N70W 26N75W 26N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A DISSIPATING ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N63W 25N70W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...AND NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE RIDGE IS HELPING THE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS RIDGE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N80W 15N81W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 11N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 80W...FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W... AND FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W JUST OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N63W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N81W 16N83W 15N83W NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 55W... A DISSIPATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N50W...WEAKENING WITH TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N52W 28N50W 24N39W. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS 28N50W CYCLONIC CENTER. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 26W AND 54W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 25N23W. GOES FROM A 32N14W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W TO 24N25W. A 1025 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N26W IS WEAKENING WITH TIME. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD...EAST OF 10N51W 20N40W...AND SOUTH OF 20N40W 25N29W 25N15W. $$ MT