000
AXNT20 KNHC 182359
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N8W  6N34W 5N53W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 15W-22W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM O F AXIS FROM 24W-53W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO CENTRAL GULF 
OF MEXICO ALONG 26N81W 23N90W DRIFTING SE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF FRONT W OF 85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
OVER WRN GULF FROM 23N-28N W OF 93W. WEAK NE WINDS THROUGHOUT 
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT.  MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER N OF FRONT E OF 93W.  WEAKENING COLD FRONT REACHES 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...QUASI ZONAL FLOW COVER ENTIRE 
GULF WITH 80 KT JET CORE OVER WEAK COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW PRES 1007 MB LOW JUST N OF PANAMA AT 10N80W WITH SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 20N79W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION OVER SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N FROM 76W-84W.  ELY 
TRADES E OF 80W AND NELY WINDS OVER NW CARIBBEAN W OF TROUGH. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER WRN ATLC HAS TROUGH 
EXTENDING SW TO 10N57W WITH NWLY FLOW COVERING ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 
75W WHILE REMAINDER OF BASIN REMAIN DRIER THAN NORMAL.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS SW N ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 30N76W TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES MIGHT BE DEVELOPING 
NEXT 6-12 HRS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF FRONT.  LOW 
PRES 1008 MB ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT IS N OF AREA WITH GALE 
WARNING N OF 32N.  SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM LOW PRES TO E 
CUBA NEAR 22N77W.  AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 
TROUGH AXIS TO 63W N OF 23N.  WEAK 1020 MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 29N52W WILL DISSIPATE NEXT 24 HRS.  SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM LOW PRES TO 22N52W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF TROUGH.  HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATES E ATLANTIC 
N OF 15N AND E OF 45W.  AFRICAN DUST OVER E ATLC S OF 20N AND E 
OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH OVER W ATLC ASSOCIATED TO 
COLD FRONT N OF 26N FROM 72W-80W.  RIDGE N OF 20N FROM 50W-72W.  
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL ATLC AT 28N47W AND SECOND ONE 
OVER CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N19W.     
    
$$
WALLY BARNES