000
AXNT20 KNHC 181812
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N9W 6N20W 6N40W 4N52W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 3W-10W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 14W-23W...FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 23W-41W... 
AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 41W-52W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 
27N80W 24N90W 24N99W MOVING SLOWLY S.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 97W-99W. 
10-15 KT NLY WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO ...ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N 
OF THE FRONT...WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY LOW CLOUDS ARE S OF THE 
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
GULF.  EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF 
WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE TAIL END OF A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS.  FURTHER MORE EXPECT SEA BREEZE RAIN AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA THIS EVENING.                  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO W OF JAMAICA ALONG 14N81W 
18N80W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 
76W-81W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF JAMAICA 
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  15-20 KT TRADES ARE E OF 77W 
...WHILE 10-15 NELY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVER THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N.  
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.      
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS S TO S FLORIDA 
ALONG 32N76W 28N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
FRONT.  A 1009 MB GALE LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 32N72W.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W.  A 
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 67W-71W.  A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N52W.  A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO 23N51W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE 
E ATLANTIC N OF 15N AND E OF 45W.  AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 35W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH 
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N49W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N18W.     
    
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FORMOSA