000 AXNT20 KNHC 171101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 7N20W 6N26W 4N40W 3N50W...TO 4N53W IN FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N10W 6N20W 6N30W 3N40W 4N37W 4N50W 8N58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA OF THE U.S.A. REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N92W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM 26N TO 27N...TO 27N105W IN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS MEXICO FROM 27N105W BEYOND 31N110W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND THE TEXAS COAST. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 27N WEST 84W MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 86W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 120W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N75W...PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS 28N76W TO ANDROS ISLAND TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 16N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO CUBA NEAR 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE PANAMA COAST NEAR 9N78W TO 12N81W TO 15N81W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...AND FROM THE COLOMBIA/ PANAMA COASTS TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W JUST NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. HIGH CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND NICARAGUA. BROAD AND DRY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N75W...PASSES OVER THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS 28N76W TO ANDROS ISLAND TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N84W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N62W 25N65W 26N69W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N49W TO 19N54W AND 16N55W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 24N50W TO 20N60W AND 20N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N54W TO BERMUDA TO 30N75W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N22W TO 23N25W TO 14N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 22N37W TO 15N39W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TRAVELS FROM 8N40W TO THE EAST OF THE 32N22W 10N44W TROUGH... EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND AFRICA. $$ MT