000
AXNT20 KNHC 161748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...4N10W 
4N20W 5N30W 5N40W...TO 7N59W IN EXTREME NORTHERN SURINAME. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ EAST OF 
47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
NORTHWEST GULF.  OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AND A WEAK 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE ANALYZED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
NORTH OF 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. 
THEN ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF.  THE WEAK COLD FRONT 
IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE 
AREA. SOME OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE AREA COMES FROM UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT MOVES
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 110W...
ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND FINALLY
ENTERING AND MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH 
RUNS FROM EASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE WEST TIP OF CUBA. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE 
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 85W. 
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 22N57W.
THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 20N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEST OF 
THE TROUGH ALONG 26N73W BEYOND 32N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 23N53W 201N60W THEN 
WEST NORTHWEST TO OVER THE BAHAMAS AND NORTH TO 28N FROM 70W TO 
78W.  HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 240 NM NORTH OF THE LINE OF 
PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER NEAR 34N55W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W TO CENTRAL 
LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
NEAR 33N23W TO A SECOND WEAK CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 22N34W TO 
7N43W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 20N40W. UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TRAVELS FROM 8N39W TO THE EAST OF 
THE 32N22W 10N44W TROUGH...EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS AND AFRICA.
    
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