000 AXNT20 KNHC 152350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 4N30W 4N40W 3N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-17W...AND BETWEEN 24-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER SW AFRICA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N66W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS DOMINATES MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS FOUND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND. SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...ALSO DOT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF LAKE OCKEECHOBEE. THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN PATCHES OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM THE W ATLC. DIURNAL SEABREEZE SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER INLAND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT THE SMOKE IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THANKS TO THE E WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SFC TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS CLEARLY DEFINED ON SURFACE DATA AS WELL AS ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 74W-82W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING HIGH THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVER JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON WED AND AFTERWARD OVER CUBA. ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS A CLOSED LOW TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON WED...THEN MOVES IT SLOWLY N ACROSS W-CENTRAL CUBA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THIS SOLUTION IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATES CENTRAL AND EAST CARIBBEAN. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT E OF 75W. ALOFT...AN E/W RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA/CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EPAC. WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N48W...THEN CONTINUES SW AND WEST TO NEAR 26N67W WHERE IT BECOMES A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N48W TO 23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NW OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC LOW MAY ALSO FORM IN THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS. THE E ATLC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 22N50W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NELY WINDS N OF 18N EAST OF 22W...INCLUDING THE CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 40W. $$ GR