000 AXNT20 KNHC 151035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N18W 5N40W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS ACROSS THE ATLC. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US AND THE N GULF INTO THE W ATLC IS BRINGING DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF LOUISIANA. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SE US INTO THE W GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-25N E OF 84W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF TAMPA. THIN LAYER OF SMOKE REMAINS OVER THE NW GULF. WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N GULF WED INTO THE THU GIVING THE AREA SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 70W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW ALONG 14N81W TO JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N W OF 75W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT REMAINS SHOWER FREE WITH AFRICAN DUST E OF 64W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 53W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N53W ALONG 27N64W BECOMING ALMOST STATIONARY AS IT REACHES THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FT LAUDERDALE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N54W ALONG 24N61W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO OVER CUBA W OF 73W...S OF 22N TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 65W-71W...E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N55W TO BEYOND 32N49W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD NW OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE US INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N W OF 45W WITH A UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO BEYOND 32N45W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY PRIMARILY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY AIR COVERING THE ATLC E OF 50W AND THE TROPICAL ATLC NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE ITCZ ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FURTHER SUPPRESSING SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ WALLACE