000 AXNT20 KNHC 150525 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N15W 3N22W 4N36W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 9W-13W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 37W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 21W-24WE AND WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FORM 45W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 25W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND GULF INTO THE W ATLC IS BRINGING DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER SE LOUISIANA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE W GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N92W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OVER FLORIDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND HAVE BEGUN TO WIND DOWN WITH REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 84W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SMOKE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE GULF FOR THE PAST WEEK IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N GULF AND HAS CLEARED THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED S ALONG THE E COAST BRINGING EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND RAIN. THE SMOKE MAY AGAIN BECOME A PROBLEM AS THE FIRES CAUSING IT HAVE NOT BEEN EXTINGUISHED AND MORE FIRES CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE US. WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N GULF WED INTO THE THU GIVING THE AREA SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 70W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW ALONG 17N81W TO THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N82 GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 76W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT REMAINS SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 55W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N56W ALONG 27N68W TO THE E COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT PIERCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W ALONG 24N61W TO 21N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS S TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND S OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N60W TO BEYOND 32N51W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING NW OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE SE US INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W ALONG 21N49W TO BEYOND 32N43W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY PRIMARILY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DRY AIR COVERING THE ATLC E OF 50W AND THE TROPICAL ATLC NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE ATLC S OF 20N TO THE ITCZ ACROSS TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FURTHER LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ WALLACE