000
AXNT20 KNHC 141805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 4N40W 3N52W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-4N 
BETWEEN 2W-7W...AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 15W-20W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA 
FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 34W-40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-34W.      

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 
5-10 KT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER.  SMOKE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 87W.  THE TAIL END OF A 
COLD FRONT TRAVERSES NE FLORIDA.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS IS NEAR DAYTONA FLORIDA FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 80W-81W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF FLORIDA AND 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.       
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
11N79W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TOWARDS JAMAICA 
NEAR 18N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 
77W-80W.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA 
E OF 73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN E/W RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA 
WITH AXIS ALONG 10N.  WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE 
AXIS.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO 
THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     
   
ATLANTIC...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N64W.  A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS W TOWARDS N FLORIDA ALONG 30N75W 30N81W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A SURFACE 
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N70W 23N74W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 28N58W 23N67W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-29N 
BETWEEN 55W-60W.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 39N20W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N50W.  IN THE 
TROPICS...AN AIRMASS SURGE IS S OF 20N APPROACHING 60W AND 
MOVING W.  AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS ALL THE WAY E TO AFRICA WITH AN 
SECONDARY THICKER PLUME OF DUST S OF 15N AND E OF 42W MOVING W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 
26N W OF 60W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-60W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-45W.  WLY FLOW IS E OF 30W.     
    
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FORMOSA