000 AXNT20 KNHC 141032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 4N16W 4N37W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 12W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-9W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 17W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND GULF INTO THE W ATLC BRINGING IS DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE INLAND OVER E TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND OVER THE SE US GIVING THE FAR NE GULF COAST ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF 86W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS SHOWER FREE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS THE N GULF FROM NE MEXICO TO CUBA AND INCLUDES E TEXAS...ALL OF LOUISIANA AND FLORIDA...S MISSISSIPPI...S ALABAMA...AND MOST OF GEORGIA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH TUE WITH A WEAK FRONT DIPPING ACROSS THE N GULF STARTING ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 70W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N82W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N80W. THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS GENERATING GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUT REMAINS SHOWER FREE. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N71W ALONG 30N77W TO OVER THE SE US NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA NEAR 32N67W SSW ALONG 28N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 63W FROM 23N-29N. ALTHOUGH SMOKY CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA COVERING THE REGION SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FT LAUDERDALE TO JACKSONVILLE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ALONG 24N56W TO 32N48W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W ATLC AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N FROM 56W TO THE WESTERN MOST SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W S TO 18N28W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W. DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W AND THE TROPICAL ATLC NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE AREA FROM 6N-15N E OF 40W AND FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN 40W-58W...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. $$ WALLACE