000 AXNT20 KNHC 140515 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N16W 1N35W EQ50W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 5N-8N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 4N FROM 16W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N FROM 28W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND GULF INTO THE W ATLC BRINGING IS DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS INLAND OVER THE SE US GIVING THE N GULF COAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOUISIANA TO ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 28N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS SHOWER FREE. THE BIGGEST CONCERN AGAIN TODAY IS THE SMOKY CONDITIONS BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. INFORMATION FROM NESDIS INDICATES THAT SMOKE NOW COVERS THE N GULF FROM NE MEXICO TO CUBA AND INCLUDES E TEXAS...ALL OF LOUISIANA...S MISSISSIPPI...S ALABAMA...AND MOST OF GEORGIA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH TUE WITH A WEAK FRONT DIPPING ACROSS THE N GULF STARTING ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W OF 73W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATE BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER N VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N81W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 77W-82W. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION REMAINS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W AND DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA...1007 MB LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW NOW CENTERED NEAR 32N69W AND A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED SE NEAR 28N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA ALONG 27N72W TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ALTHOUGH SMOKY CONDITIONS REMAIN A CONCERN BROUGHT ON BY THE FIRES THAT CONTINUE IN SE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA COVERING THE REGION S OF 30N E OF 76W...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF FT LAUDERDALE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ALONG 24N55W TO 30N45W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W ATLC AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N FROM 53W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF A LINE FROM 21N68W TO 24N82W TO INLAND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INCLUDES MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W S TO 15N30W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W. DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W AND THE TROPICAL ATLC NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF AFRICA DUST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO 23N E OF 53W...THUS LIMITING CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ. $$ WALLACE