000 AXNT20 KNHC 111749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... LAST NIGHT SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. HOWEVER..SINCE THIS MORNING CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST AT 11/1500Z...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-80W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 3N55W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N EAST OF 25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 80 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS WEST OF 47 W AND OVER NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. AS OF 15Z...THE CENTER OF THIS LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 28N78W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A CUT-OFF LOW IS ENTERING THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 25N AND WEST OF 90W. SFC PRESSURE ARE SLIGHTLY FALLING IN THE AREA. AS OF 15Z...A 1014 MB SFC LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N97W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/NE MEXICO. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SMOKE OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE WILDFIRES ACROSS GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. AS A RESULT... HAZY CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE STILL BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA BUT MAINLY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N92W. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE E GULF LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC DIPS S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER E VENEZUELA. SWLY WINDS BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM N SOUTH AMERICA NEWD ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N76W ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N79W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES SOME WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 10N77W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC... REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ARE BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER E VENEZUELA TO BEYOND 32N50W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE RELATED TO THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A 1012 MB SFC LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z MAP NEAR 25N71W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD WEAKENING. LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N40W AND IS ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON ITS E SIDE. VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS FOUND JUST W OF THE LOW CENTER. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 32N43W. $$ GR