000
AXNT20 KNHC 111045
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N17W 5N25W 3N25W 4N52W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N 
BETWEEN 4W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM EQ19W-1N30W-5N34W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR 
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 7N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
24W-52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED LOW IS INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 88W WHILE 
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL INLAND OVER TEXAS. THIS IS 
GENERATING SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 92W TO 
INLAND OVER TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS 
OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC. THIS SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS 
ADVECTING DRY AIR OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. HAZY CONDITIONS 
ARE STILL BEING REPORTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH 
LOCATED OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 27N91W. DRY CONDITIONS AND 
CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N88W TO 24N95W. WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF 
THROUGH SUN. 
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS 
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS N TO NE WINDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 15N80W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 
120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N78W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 20N76W. OTHERWISE 
THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER 
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  
   
ATLANTIC...
A 1005 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF ANDREA...IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 
180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. THIS SURFACE LOW IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 
65W. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS 
CUBA NEAR 21N77W OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 25N74W 
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 67W-75W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE 
UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 17N61W TO BEYOND 32N55W 
PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175/200 NM OF 
LINE FROM 21N68W TO BEYOND 32N58W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE 
E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N40W COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N 
FROM 35W-50W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY AIR AND IS 
ONLY PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 34W-40W. 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH A WEAK 1019 
MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 32N43W. 
    
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WALLACE