000 AXNT20 KNHC 110546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.3N 79.8W OR ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. ANDREA IS MOVING SOUTH NEAR 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KWBC FOR MORE DETAILS. SMALL WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO REMOVED FROM THE CENTER WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N79W TO 30N77W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N22W 2N34W 3N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N E OF 14W TO ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 1N19W-1N28W-4N33W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED LOW IS INLAND OVER TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ALSO REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS. THIS IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC IN WHICH ANDREA IS EMBEDDED. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ADVECTING DRY AIR OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA WHICH IS LIMITING ANY SHOWERS THAT COULD EXTINGUISH SOME OF THE FIRES IN SE GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH LOCATED OFF THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 27N91W. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 60/75 NM OF 25N93W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS N TO NE WINDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THIS IS INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 11N78W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA N OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-79W. OTHERWISE THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 67W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 64W IN WHICH ANDREA IS EMBEDDED. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR INFORMATION CONCERNING ANDREA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 17N61W TO BEYOND 32N57W PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 70W-76W AND A BROADER AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 22N65W TO BEYOND 32N60W. LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N42W COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N FROM 32W-50W GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 25W-42W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED NEAR 31N42W. $$ WALLACE