000 AXNT20 KNHC 051743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1N50W. SCATTRED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN WITHIN 60-80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-22W...AND BETWEEN 24W-32W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 42W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF AROUND HIGH PRES LOCATED NE OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST SE WINDS ARE FOUND W OF 90W...WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT EXISTS DUE TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING N THROUGH THE NW GULF UNDER A SLY WIND FLOW. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE WRN GULF BEHIND THE TROUGHING OVER THE FAR ERN GULF/STATE OF FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC INTO THE WRN GULF BY STRONG WLY WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS EXPECTED E OF 90W THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE BASIN DUE TO WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. STREAMERS OR CLOUD LINES ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES/VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. MOIST ESE WIND FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES SITUATED WELL NE OF THE AREA AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN ATLC SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM A 1012 MB SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N64W TO HISPANIOLA WHERE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE AN UPPER HIGH NEAR GUYANA EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS WWD FROM VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA. SWLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EPAC ITCZ LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLC OCEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE WRN ATLC CONTINUES TO BE THE SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM HISPANIOLA TO A 1012 MB SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N64W. THIS...ALONG WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...IS SUPPORTING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF OVERCAST CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 52W-65W. ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS AREA...VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW. THIS LOW WILL MOVE MAINLY E WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE SUN-TUE TIMEFRAME. THIS FEATURE COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE FROM A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NOW ALONG 31N WEST OF 60W. THIS SFC LOW MAY REACH STORM FORCE WINDS AS IT MAKES A LOOPING TYPE MOTION OFF THE SE US. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1032MB SFC HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N29W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N33W THAT HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 15N...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. $$ GR