000 AXNT20 KNHC 021031 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N15W 3N24W 4N40W 3N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 33W FROM 2S-6N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 22W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 14W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING E OVER OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER E TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOUISIANA TO MISSOURI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS ALONG THE TEXAS/ LOUISIANA COAST N OF 25N W OF 93W. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N86W TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO BUT NO ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE INTO THE NW GULF. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO JUST ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A 1016 MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL N OF 18N W OF 83W. OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N FROM HAITI NEAR 73W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 82W. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE... DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC... BROAD...FLAT UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N W OF 50W TO OVER NE FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N69W OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ALONG 79W FROM 24N-30N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 30N76W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING THE REMINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. $$ WALLACE