000 AXNT20 KNHC 020456 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N16W 4N24W 2N36W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 29W/30W FROM 1N-6N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-27W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 31W-34W...AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 5.5N FROM 14W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING N OVER OKLAHOMA/NEBRASKA AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER E TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF WATERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 92W-96W. THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA THROUGH AND UPPER LOW NEAR 26N86W TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BUT NO ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO DRAWING THE THUNDERSTORMS OF E TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH A 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE N GULF OF FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL. OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 16N73W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 65W TO OVER E CUBA NEAR 79W. THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION IS JUST S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC... BROAD...FLAT UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N W OF 50W TO OVER NE FLORIDA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N49W TO 27N63W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N68W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE N CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 65W TO E CUBA NEAR 78W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ALONG 79W FROM 24N-29N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES PRODUCING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING THE REMINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE