000 AXNT20 KNHC 010514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N15W 3N26W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-33W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 5W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER LOW IS OVER N TEXAS IS GENERATING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER N/CENTRAL TEXAS AND A SECOND AREA MOVING S ACROSS S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N-28N W OF 96W. THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 88W. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AS WELL WITH A 1018 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS RIDGE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE TEXAS/ MEXICO COAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 20N83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO 13N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N FROM 81W-86W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 79W-82W. OTHERWISE... DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 65W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND N OF 18N E OF 73W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 31N58W ALONG 24N65W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N76W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 60W-67W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 31N16W W ALONG 29N26W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N40W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N. THIS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE W BY A 1021 MB HIGH S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N65W AND IN THE E BY A 1032 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING MOST OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE