000 AXNT20 KNHC 301039 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N27W 3N38W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 12W-14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 14W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER TEXAS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OF YESTERDAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR W GULF FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO TEXAS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 88W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SE US AND GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY AIR IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST DUE TO RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER E/W RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. MID LEVEL TROUGH AND REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 13N83W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N FROM 80W-84W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 67W. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N65W TO 29N69W AND A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N72W ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N78W. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N-27N INCLUDING THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. A BENIGN CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N41W COVERING THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 35W-50W. THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME VERY DRY AIR THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC AND IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE ATLC DIPPING S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST SW OF THE AZORES. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IS GIVING MOST OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. $$ WALLACE