000 AXNT20 KNHC 280526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 5N25W 1N35W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 17W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 25W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 46W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOW MOVING DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N81W 26N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE GULF... E OF THE FRONT...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS 10-15 KT SELY FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL ALSO PREDICTS MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL ADVECT OVER TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PRODUCE CONVECTION WITHIN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER HISPANIOLA MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OF THE TRADES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 79W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WRN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 88W-90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MODERATE TRADES WITH PATCHES OF SHOWERS MOSTLY E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHALLOW TROUGH IS OVER ERN CUBA N OF 20N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 10N BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND COSTA RICA...PRODUCING WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF 10N. EXPECT MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE TRADES. ATLANTIC... A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N40W. ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N23W...ALL PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N FROM AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SHARP TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 63W-70W N OF 20N. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-63W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 25N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE JUST N OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N42W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. $$ FORMOSA