000 AXNT20 KNHC 252344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N25W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE NE BRAZILIAN COAST AND FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS E TEXAS AND THE WEST GULF. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO REACH THE CENTRAL GULF TOMORROW MORNING...AND W CUBA/THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY. STRONG SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 21Z...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N95W TO NE MEXICO CROSSING JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE PRECEDING THE FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE SE US. MODERATE TO STRONG S TO SE WINDS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE N OF THE GULF REGION BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES AS IT CROSSES THE GULF. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO THU AND DISSIPATE FRI. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DRAPES SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO. THE ATTENDANT STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDED FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N73W. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME OF WHICH ARE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SMALL AREA OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS MOVING QUICKLY FROM E TO W ACROSS JAMAICA. THE EPAC ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA INTO W COLOMBIA ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS WHERE THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 31N42W TO 26N49W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/ PUERTO RICO CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE HAS BUILT BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N63W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N32W. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 22N36W. WITH THE DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER MOST THE ATLC...THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT/TROUGH. E OF THIS FRONT...A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING MODERATE TRADE WINDS. $$ GR