000
AXNT20 KNHC 251717
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N6W 2N13W 1N20W 2N34W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 41W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW 
AFRICA S OF 7N W OF 7W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM INLAND OVER AFRICA TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E 
OF 10W TO JUST ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN 
STATES AND MEXICO MOVING INTO THE W GULF N OF 20N W OF 93W. THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BUT WILL BE MOVING 
INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. A SQUALL LINE PRECEDING THE 
FRONT IS IN THE NW GULF WITH HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM 
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 94W. BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE SE US. MODERATE/STRONG S TO SE WINDS 
CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE GULF WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO 
THE N BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF. THE MAIN 
ENERGY WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE N OF THE GULF REGION BUT 
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE N 
GULF COAST STATES AS IT CROSSES THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND A SECOND IS OVER THE 
SE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM OVER THE W/CENTRAL 
ATLC DRAPING ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS N OF 17N FROM E CUBA 
TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO TO 14N79W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THE TROUGH MAINLY OVER PUERTO RICO AND 
HISPANIOLA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E 
PACIFIC REGION ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 
11N TO ACROSS PANAMA BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 81W. DRY UPPER AIR 
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 
BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND 
NICARAGUA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S 
OF 15N W OF 82W. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.  

ATLANTIC...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N43W TO 28N47W 
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/ 
PUERTO RICO CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH. 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE FRONT AND S OF 21N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS E OF THE 
FRONT/TROUGH TO 70W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE HAS BUILT BEHIND 
THE FRONT COVERING THE W ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1026 
MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N63W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IS IN 
THE E TROPICAL ATLC SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N33W. 
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 
22N36W. WITH THE DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER MOST THE 
ATLC...THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL 
ATLC FRONT/TROUGH. 

$$
WALLACE