000 AXNT20 KNHC 251154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 610W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 26W...AND THEN CONTINUING TO 1S30W 2S36W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 5S42W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 2W AND 9W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SURINAME AND INTO EASTERN GUYANA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 13N28W TO 7N32W TO 7N40W TO 8N46W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 500 NM NORTH OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER EAST OF 30W...AND WITHIN 1000 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IT IS PUSHING A MASS OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW WEST OF 28N83W 23N88W 19N93W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVED INTO EAST TEXAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY ALONG A SQUALL LINE. THE DEEPER THAT THE TROUGH IN THE U.S.A. BECOMES CONVERTS INTO A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH STILL RUNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO A SPOT ABOUT 150 NM EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO 26N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 20N60W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING ANGUILLA...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND PUERTO RICO. THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RAINS PROMPTING THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN PUERTO RICO HAVE DISSIPATED. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF A BIT MORE RAIN POPS UP IN THE AREA OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. THE TROUGH/FRONT SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DISAPPEARING ANY TIME SOON. THE COLD FRONT GOES FROM 20N60W TO 18N65W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 18N65W 16N70W 14N77W. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN ANALYZED ON THE SURFACE MAPS SINCE 21/1800 UTC. IT HAS BEEN IN AND AROUND PUERTO RICO EVER SINCE THE FRONT/TROUGH SYSTEM DEVELOPED. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N70W 18N65W 18N60W TO 20N. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W IN SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 9N60W 10N70W 11N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS...AND EASTWARD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT FROM A 1013 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 33N46W TO 28N47W TO 26N50W AND PASSING THROUGH 20N60W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N50W 24N54W TO 20N61W. A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N11W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS TO 30N20W TO 28N25W AND 28N22W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N22W TO 29N40W AND TO A 1013 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 33N46W. $$ MT