000 AXNT20 KNHC 231717 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 5W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 26W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 38W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N74W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. 10-20 KT SWLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE GULF E OF 96W. ONSHORE FLOW OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO IS PRODUCING BROKEN TO LOW CLOUDS W OF 96W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 95W. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE AND PRODUCE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS W OF 96W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HAVE CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 21N60W 18N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. A PATCH OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER E PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-79W. A 1100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KT NELY WINDS FLOW THROUGH BOTH THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LIGHTER ELY WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE AXIS IS OVER NRN SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 10N FROM TRINIDAD TO COSTA RICA. MOSTLY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 32N33W 28N40W 21N60W 18N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-50W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 20W. A WEAK TROPICAL JETSTREAM DEPICTED BY THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO W AFRICA ALONG 5N30W 13N20W 21N5W. $$ FORMOSA