000
AXNT20 KNHC 220550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING 
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N10W 5N20W 2N30W 2N40W 2N46W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W... 
GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S53W. SCATTERED STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 12W AND 14W...BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND BETWEEN 
30W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEYOND 
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF COAST OF LOUISIANA. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS 
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO IS FOR EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NO COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 13N/14N FROM THE EASTERN SECTION 
TO CENTRAL AMERICA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 
20N59W TO 16N67W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH 
CONTINUES FROM 16N67W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N62W 17N65W TO 16N67W...AND FROM
18N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 11N
TO 11.5N BETWEEN COLOMBIA ALONG 75W AND 77W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHERN 
HALF OF GUATEMALA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 50W. THIS SYSTEM 
SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W 
TO 25N50W TO 20N59W TO 16N67W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 16N67W TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N60W 
25N50W 28N46W BEYOND 32N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
18N46W TO 26N37W BEYOND 31N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 
32N26W TO 26N38W 15N51W FINALLY TO 10N58W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL MOROCCO TO SOUTHERN WESTERN 
SAHARA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT