000 AXNT20 KNHC 210602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W...GOING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W FROM 1S TO 4N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR 4N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING IN MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 16N92W TO 18N96W TO 22N99W TO 24N99W. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N79W JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST AT 21/0000 UTC HAS VANISHED BY 21/0300 UTC. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WEAK. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FOR EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NO COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA/EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N68W TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR 15N83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N57W 21N61W 19N64W TO 18N65W IN THE WATERS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 19N49W TO 16N63W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. ITCZ-RELATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 56W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N63W TO 22N68W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N68W TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N41W 28N44W 26N49W 25N53W 22N58W 20N63W TO 18N65W IN THE WATERS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 21N53W TO 27N47W BEYOND 32N44W. A SURFACE RIDGE STARTS AT A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N27W AND IT CONTINUES TO 25N39W 19N49W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 300 NM TO 400 NM NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 14N23W NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 8N40W...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO 700 NM OF THE LINE FROM 8N40W 5N50W 5N55W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N9W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N22W TO 15N27W ABOUT 150 NM WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS SOUTH OF 3N/4N MOVING FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA EASTWARD TO 10N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AT A LEVEL DIFFERENT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...IS ALONG 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 50W. $$ MT