000 AXNT20 KNHC 150516 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N20W 1N33W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 40W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 2W-7W AND FROM 6N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 7W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE ITCZ AXIS TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 3N FROM 34W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 84W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT 15/0300 UTC ENTERING THE GULF ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER EXTENDING INTO THE BAY CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W PRODUCING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THIS FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY EXITING THE GULF SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. BAND OF SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 28N87W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US NEAR 30N85W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 23N FROM 87W-91W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. DRY AIR IS MOVING IN OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH AID IN CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N81W EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. THIS IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN S TO SW UPPER FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC IS BUILDING SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. DRY AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 83W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA GIVING CLEAR SKIES WITH NO SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING SW OVER W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N71W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM 40W-65W WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. NONE ARE PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION N OF 23N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N20W TO 25N29W WHERE IT DISSIPATES NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS BRIDGING THE FRONT N OF 15N E OF 43W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 24N33W AND A STRONGER 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA ACROSS THE TROPICS ALONG 7N/8N TO 50W. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. $$ WALLACE