000
AXNT20 KNHC 141030
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 1N23W 4N43W 2N51W. SCATTERED/ 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
13W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE S 
OF 5N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 21W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST 
OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 44W-54W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TO ALONG THE 
COAST OF TEXAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALSO ALONG TEXAS 
COAST AT 14/0900 UTC. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THAT WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE N GULF COAST STATES 
THIS MORNING. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA/ 
TEXAS BORDER ALONG 28N95W TO JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 
14/0900 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
75 NM E OF TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. THIS 
IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF 
FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION BUT ONLY PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS. DRY 
AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E GULF LEAVING THE AREA UNDER 
CLEAR SKIES WHILE THE RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS PRODUCING LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 89W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN 
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W GIVING 
THE W CARIBBEAN W UPPER FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR 
CURRENTLY IN PLACE CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W 
OF 70W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS 
BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC N OF 22N FROM 69W TO OVER FLORIDA AND A 
1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N75W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM 47W-70W HOWEVER THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS N OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYERED 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION N OF 
23N FROM 20W-35W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
REGION NEAR 32N26W TO 27N33W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY 
FRONT NW TO 31N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
N OF THE REGION. A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N55W 
WITH AN EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 27N53W TO 
23N59W. BROAD UPPER E/W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA ACROSS 
THE TROPICS ALONG 8N/9N TO 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N17W SW TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 24N31W 
TO 17N45W. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC GIVING 
THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. 

$$
WALLACE