000 AXNT20 KNHC 130524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N19W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 28W-40W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 10W ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO OFF THE E US AND ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC DISSIPATING INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 25N90W TO TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO N CUBA NEAR 23N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO INLAND OVER CUBA E OF 88W. DRY AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF LEAVING THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN S TO SW UPPER FLOW ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST W OF 81W. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N75W DISSIPATING ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N79W TO N CUBA NEAR 23N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N74W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N79W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE REGION ALONG 30N FROM 35W-55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPPING INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N38W 28N49W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 31N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 45W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC TO 35W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N13W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N28W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N27W TO 23N47W. THIS IS GIVING THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. $$ WALLACE