000 AXNT20 KNHC 091744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N9W 4N20W 2N30W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S AT 49W. SCATTERED TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W...AND BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO 20N102W IN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS ON TOP OF A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 22N101W BEYOND 32N106W IN FAR WEST TEXAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A LINGERING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N99W TO 26N101W BEYOND 32N104W. A SURFACE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N95W A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 20N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY TO 26N83W. THE 1014 MB LOW CENTER HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SURFACE FEATURE IS WAITING FOR THE INLAND MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CATCH UP TO ITS POSITION...AND THEN REINFORCE IT WITH SOME EXTRA ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS IS FOR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER TO MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND THEN DISSIPATE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 11N BETWEEN 60W AND 95W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPIRALLING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING ON TOP OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE THAT IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 70W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN BY THE SHAPE OF THE 1012 MB ISOBAR IN COLOMBIA. THE CIRCULATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE CLOSED OFF IN THE ANALYSIS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWS UP IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 82W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 82W. SCATTERED STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW GOES FROM CUBA...THE BAHAMAS... AND FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N WEST OF 50W. THIS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. IT ALSO SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 26N60W 22N68W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N55W 25N60W 23N63W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 19N63W TO 25N54W BEYOND 32N43W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 25N31W TO 12N34W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURVES FROM 23N21W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 32N15W JUST EAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...COVERING AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N41W TO 27N46W TO 19N57W TO TRINIDAD/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. $$ MT