000 AXNT20 KNHC 090534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 2N30W...SURGING S CROSSING THE EQ AT 38W AND CONTINUING INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SWATH OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIP COVERS MUCH OF REGION N OF 26N. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 26N95W AND A WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES EWD TO 26N87W. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW TO 19N95W THEN CURVES BACK NWD BANKED AGAINST THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED A FAIRLY DRAMATIC CONTRAST IN TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 50 F ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE MID 70'S IN THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADDITION...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SFC LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER ERN TEXAS HAS LED TO PERSISTENT STRONG NE WINDS AND WIND WAVES IN THE NW GULF...WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR BEACHES ALONG S TX. SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO BROWNSVILLE FOR MORE INFO. MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE SE PORTION SUPPORTED BY SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE BAHAMAS. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE FLOW IS ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN HALF AND WSW ACROSS THE SRN. THIS PATTERN IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT ON THE WEATHER BESIDES FOR A STREAK OF CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MORE MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE SW GULF LATER TODAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REGION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. SLY FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGING FLOW ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS IS FUELING PATCHES OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA. THE UPPER FLOW IS THEN PUSHING LEFT OVER HIGH CLOUDS NWD INTO THE S CARIB W OF 70W. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE AS THE GRADIENT IS STILL FAIRLY LOOSE IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW MOSTLY N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A BROKEN DECK OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIKELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LIE OVER THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT'S REMNANT MOISTURE AND LOCAL TOPO AND ONSHORE FLOW INFLUENCES. ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING STEERED WWD BY THE TRADES. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK SFC HIGH PRES...ANALYZED 1021 MB NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...IS BUILDING E INTO THE WRN ATLC BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W AND CONTINUES SW TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT MUCH NEARBY UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS SFC FEATURE...WITH THE FLOW BEING MAINLY SWLY. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS/ENERGY IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION AND FOR THAT REASON...THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE WITH A WEAK E-W SFC RIDGE TAKING ITS PLACE. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A STRONGLY TITLED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NEWD FROM THE E CARIB ALONG 21N60W 32N49W. A 1026 MB SFC HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTROLLING MUCH OF THE SFC PATTERN AND PRODUCING MODERATE TRADES S OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-50W. THE UPPER FLOW THEN FOLDS INTO A BROAD EXTENSIVE TROUGH WITH A ROUGH AXIS RUNNING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WELL SSW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 8N35W. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A SFC LOW ANALYZED 1013 MB NEAR 30N21W. BESIDES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE LOW AND A PATCH OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 29W-34W...FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE THE RULE. $$ CANGIALOSI