000
AXNT20 KNHC 081035
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N19W 1N28W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 39W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S44W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE 
AXIS E OF 14W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE THE COAST OF AFRICA 
NEAR 5N10W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 5W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC 
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ENHANCING 
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER 
THE NW GULF COAST. RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE TROUGH IN 
THE W GULF ALONG 23N97W TO 28N95W BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 95W. SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS STRONG FROM THE 
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER THE GULF WITH A 1028 MB HIGH OVER 
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON MON. MODERATE/STRONG 
MOSTLY NE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH UNSEASONABLE 
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE N GULF COAST. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 8N64W GIVING THE AREA SW TO W UPPER FLOW. THIS FLOW 
IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA 
AND PANAMA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N W OF 70W. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE 
AREA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO 
MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N53W ALONG 25N63W TO THE COAST OF HAITI. A 
SECOND RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING FASTER THAN THE LEADING 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W TO 28N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES 
E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT S OF 
27N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 8N64W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 20N55W INTO 
THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E 
AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N41W. A DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 12N E OF 40W TO THE COAST 
OF AFRICA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 
1010 MB LOW OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS 
TO 24N22W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK 
OF THE ATLC...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE 
AREA.  

$$
WALLACE