000 AXNT20 KNHC 071037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N10W 4N20W 3N37W 3N46W 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-22W AND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE W ATLC FROM THE US COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SKIES OVER FLORIDA AND THE SW GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NW OVER MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES BRINGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO THE W GULF BUT AS YET HAS PRODUCED ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO BUILD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS. BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE OVER THE FAR E GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17N89W WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 18N79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W ACROSS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WITH SW TO W UPPER WINDS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 62W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 34N67W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR NEAR 22N79W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N75W ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS ALONG 25N68W TO NEAR BERMUDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 200 NM OF E OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH S OF 25N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 22N56W TO BEYOND 32N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH 1024 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 31N46W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 10N FROM 20W-42W WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N23W SW TO 27N27W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK OF THE ATLC E OF E OF 50W...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER AFRICA N INLAND OVER AFRICA TO E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA E OF 20W AND CONTINUING TO LIMIT THE ITCZ AXIS CONVECTION. $$ WALLACE