000 AXNT20 KNHC 070518 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 07 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 2N19W 2N37W ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N TO THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 14W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US AND GULF OF MEXICO MOVING OVER THE W ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE E GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AN DIS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE W GULF BRINGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO THE FAR W GULF BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AFR W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N89W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO 16N81W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERING THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN WITH SW TO W UPPER WINDS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N FROM 75W-83W AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER TROUGH FROM THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 33N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W OVER CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N70W TO BEYOND 32N65W. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N57W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 29N46W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 12N FROM 20W-45W WITH ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N26W SW TO 24N37W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK OF THE ATLC E OF E OF 60W...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE N TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA E OF 20W AND CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS CONVECTION. $$ WALLACE