000
AXNT20 KNHC 061813
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W INTO SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR EQ50W.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF AFRICA 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 24W-26W.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 41W-52W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
TO W CUBA ALONG 24N80W 22N82W.  COMPOSITE NEXRAD RADAR SHOWS 
SCATTERED MODERATE RAIN AND SHOWERS OFFSHORE FROM 24N-26N 
BETWEEN 78W-81W.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF THE 
FRONT HAS 10-15 KT N-NE WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH TROUGH 
AXIS ALONG 85W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 95W WHILE 
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MEXICO AND 
THE W GULF W OF 95W.  EXPECT UPPER LEVEL WLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE 
GULF AT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER N 
MEXICO WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE 
RIDGING AT 24 HOURS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO N HONDURAS 
ALONG 22N82W 16N86W MOVING E.  15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN W OF FRONT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CUBA N OF 
21N.  10-15 KT TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 
12N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W 
OF 80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE 
AXIS ALONG 60W.  THIN BANDS OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED 
OVER THE SEA E OF 80W.  EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FLATTEN 
OUT AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT 24 
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE TO BE OVER 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO JAMAICA IN 24 HOURS.  TRADEWINDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA E OF 
FRONT.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC A 1008 MB LOW FORMED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N74W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO W CUBA NEAR 22N82W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE FROM N OF 24N BETWEEN 
72W-78W.   A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 28N52W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N28W 24N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM E OF FRONT.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE 
CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N23W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 25W-50W.  WLY FLOW IS E OF 
25W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE NE OUT 
OF THE AREA BY 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E AND PRODUCE CONVECTION N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BY 24 
HOURS.  

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FORMOSA