000 AXNT20 KNHC 060519 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 3N28W 1N38W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S47W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST FROM 3W-8W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE US THROUGH ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N89W TO A THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES CONSIST OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N89W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 18N91W APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW IS ALSO ATTACHED TO A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 28N E OF 89W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SE OF THE LOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE N AND W GULF WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S OVER THE GULF WATERS AND CLEARING SKIES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE SAME AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF BY SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH SW WIND TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FAR E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WITH ONLY HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC HAS RELAXED TO PRODUCE LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW ATLC DRAPING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA EXTENDING THROUGH 32N69W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N60W. WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS N OF THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 24N63W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 30W-53W WITH THE A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS REMAINING N OF THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N33W SW TO 25N45W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE BULK OF THE ATLC E OF E OF 65W...THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 8N23W COVERING THE AREA E OF 30W AND CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS CONVECTION. E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE SAME UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE ATLC TO NEAR 42W. $$ WALLACE