000 AXNT20 KNHC 050449 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU APR 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 3N17W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 23W-44W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 1W-5W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE W ATLC COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF AND THE SE US. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER E TEXAS/MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES HAS MOVED TO OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FROM A 1004 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N83W TO A 1015 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N94W CONTINUING TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF S OF THE FRONT W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N FROM 87W-94W TO THE N GULF COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONSISTING OF A WIND SHIFT AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WEAKER N TO E WINDS S OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF ON FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA TO W CUBA NEAR 22N80W COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SW WIND TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE W PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA S OF 12N W OF 82W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER THAT AREA. LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 80W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC WITH A 1015 MB HIGH E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N73W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N FROM 35W-65W WITH THE A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF THE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 994 MB LOW NEAR 34N45W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 36N41W INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N42W SW TO 26N54W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N63W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE NE FURTHER OUT OF THE REGION TRAILING THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 46W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A UPPER HIGH S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 8N22W COVERING THE AREA E OF 35W. E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE SAME UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE ATLC TO NEAR 50W CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS TO THE S. $$ WALLACE