000 AXNT20 KNHC 022343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON APR 2 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W 2N25W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 28W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N E OF 14W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND OVER NE BRAZIL MAINLY WEST OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF MEXICO...PARTICULARLY E OF 100W. A DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS NW MEXICO IS ENHANCING ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UPPER SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF... WHERE AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N64W IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SW AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE N GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE WRN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1025 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-80W. THESE WINDS ARE DRIVING PATCHES OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SEA...BUT MAINLY SOUTH OF 16N. SIMILAR FRAGMENTS OF MOISTURE ARE SEEN OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES. DRY AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REGION. S TO SW WINDS ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER HIGH ARE HELPING TO DEVELOP CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER N COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED AND WILL THEN DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC WEST OF 60W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC. WLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE DEEP TROPICS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N64W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO S FLORIDA KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS RATHER TRANQUIL. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N31W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 17N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC. A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE OCEAN WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-60W DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. $$ GR