000 AXNT20 KNHC 011033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 2N35W 2N51W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS S OF THE AXIS FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 34W-41W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE IS APPROACHING NE BRAZIL NEAR 3N50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW GULF IN ADVANCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA JUST W OF FREEPORT TEXAS AND CONTINUES SSW TO JUST W OF BROWNSVILLE AND THEN INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N W OF 91W. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ESPECIALLY WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A TAMPICO TO NEW ORLEANS LINE WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. REMAINDER OF GULF SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY WRN PORTION OF AN ATLC 1025 MB HIGH 500 NM E OF THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING GENERALLY DOMINATES AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER TROUGHING EXTENDING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ALSO SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IN THE NW GULF. WSW FLOW IS SPREADING CIRRUS OVER THE CONVECTION E OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRES HAS BUILT N OF THE AREA AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CARIB. ELONGATED...BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUD REGION ASSOCIATED WITH OLD FRONTAL ZONE NOTED BETWEEN THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND DOMINICA THAT LIKELY HAS EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N. BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SW FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS NE THROUGH THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 75W. BRISK TRADE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA INTERACTS WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 31N71W DOMINATES THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N40W AND CONTINUES S/SW THROUGH 20N45W 14N57W. BROKEN COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT EXCEPT WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND RIDGING OVER THE ERN ATLC. THE RECENT STRONG N WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAVE SENT A STRONG PULSE OF MEDIUM PERIOD (9-11S) NLY SWELL THROUGH THE AREA. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO SAN JUAN FOR MORE INFO. REMAINDER OF E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT 10-20 KT E/NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 30W. HI PRES IN THE WRN ATLC WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE S AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE E ATLC IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT WILL PUSH E TO A POSITION ALONG 30N35W 15N47W BY MON MORNING. $$ WILLIS