000 AXNT20 KNHC 311819 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N10W 4N19W 2N30W 1N40W 1N45W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W AND ENTERING EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 53W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3S TO 2S BETWEEN 48W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD...EVEN NORTH OF 25N IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW GOES FROM MEXICO NEAR 20N105W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WEST OF 90W... AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 90W. A COASTAL TEXAS COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME...BEING DRIVEN BY THE ENORMOUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST NORTHEASTWARD TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE FORECAST FOR THIS COLD FRONT IS FOR IT TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THEN TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE SAME 24 HOUR PERIOD. EXPECT RAIN WITH THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 20N66W 17N73W 14N80W 11N83W NEAR THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE MIDDLE LEVEL WIND FLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THIS 20N66W 11N83W LINE IS VARIABLE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 80W...AND EASTERLY FLOW IS SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 75W. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ORIGINATES FROM THE EASTERN END OF THE ITCZ...AND MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT FROM 24 HOURS HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH 19N60W TO PUERTO RICO...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NORTHWESTERN HAITI. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. SHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN A LINE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N60W 15N65W 14N70W 13N75W 14N80W 15N83W...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EAST-TO-WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 7N FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SAME DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO...NOW WEST OF 50W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS SOUTH OF 32N WEST OF 50W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N46W TO 24N49W TO 20N50W. THE REST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH IS BEING COVERED BY ALL THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 9N42W 32N38W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N51W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N51W TO 23N54W...TO 19N60W... ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CONTINUING TO PUERTO RICO... THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWESTERN HAITI. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N43W 23N46W 19N50W 13N60W. SHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN A LINE OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N41W 22N46W 18N53W 15N60W. SHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE WITH A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS FROM 20N52W TO 22N50W...AND THEN NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W...WITH THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N28W TO 25N33W TO 16N40W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 9N42W 16N40W 24N39W BEYOND 32N38W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 22N19W 12N23W. $$ MT