000 AXNT20 KNHC 310012 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAR 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W 2S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 17W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N BRAZIL FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN 45W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W. RETURN FLOW FROM THE HIGH IS PRODUCING 15-25 KT E TO ESE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. NO CONVECTION OR SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF. A COLD FRONT WITH A MASSIVE AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INLAND OVER NE TEXAS N OF 31N TO NEBRASKA. ELSEWHERE...UPSLOPE ELY FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 97W-100W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W. A THIN BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N MOVING E. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE MAINLY SWLY FLOW. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EVENING AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND N VENEZUELA FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 66W-78W DRIFTING N. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. 20-25 KT TRADES COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO BELIZE MOVING W WITH THE TRADES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. WLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A BAND OF MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE TRADES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE PASSING SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED S OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N49W 24N60W DISSIPATING TO FLORIDA ALONG 22N70W 25N78W 30N82W MOVING SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1006 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 24N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 20N52W 17N60W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N21W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-75W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-50W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-25W. EXPECT SURFACE TROUGHING AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E ATLC. $$ FORMOSA