000 AXNT20 KNHC 300600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N35W EQ50W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SFC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE GULF TONIGHT. THIS IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IN TURN ARE GENERATING SMALL TO MODERATE WIND WAVES...GETTING LARGER FURTHER W WHERE MORE FETCH IS AVAILABLE. THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN FRI AND SAT ALLOWING SE WINDS TO INCREASE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS AT A MINIMUM OVER THE GULF WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF. DRY/STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE BASIN ASIDE FROM BANDS OF UPPER MOISTURE/CIRRUS OVER THE NW AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SFC TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 19N63W 17N67W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NE CARIB AS SHOWN VIA THE SAN JUAN RADAR. THIS HAS LED TO A WEAKNESS IN THE TRADE FLOW FOR THE NE PORTION...MAINLY E OF 70W...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. A BIT STRONGER TRADES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA...SEE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT3 FOR DETAILS. BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS FROM ITS ORIGIN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS ADVECTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS E TO NE THROUGH MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N55W AND CONTINUES WSW TO NEAR 29N70W THEN WNW TO THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS FRONT HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH N TO NE WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY AND ONLY RAGGED REMNANTS OF A ROPE SIGNATURE. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 60W-64W. STRONG HI PRES STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL BREAK THROUGH THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG N/NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 60W TODAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. AS OF 30/0000 UTC THE TROUGH WAS ALONG 29N50W 21N56W AND CONTINUES INTO THE CARIB TO 17N67W. A 1011 MB LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE TROUGH NEAR 19N61W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE TO NEAR 28N47W BY 31/0000 UTC. IN ADDITION TO THE SFC SUPPORT...UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING S FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 38W IS SUPPORTING THE DEEP LAYER CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ISLD TSTMS N OF 21N BETWEEN 43W-55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1030 MB HI PRES AREA E OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N19W. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE/E WINDS E OF 35W. $$ WILLIS