000
AXNT20 KNHC 291057
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N8W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 53W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N18W 3N26W 1N32W...AND SOUTH 
OF 2N BETWEEN 32W AND 46W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3S BETWEEN
32W AND 45W. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM SIX HOURS AGO EITHER HAVE WEAKENED
AND/OR MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...
INTO MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF  
TEHUANTEPEC...THROUGH 23N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND
30N86W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
ARE IN THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 87W...WITH DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 29N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO STAY IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED WARM 
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN THE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WEST OF 90W. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA/COSTA RICA...TO WESTERN 
NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO MEXICO BETWEEN THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND BEYOND 23N90W 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD AND WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA WEST
OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS 
THE AREA NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM 
15N65W BEYOND 20N65W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND EVEN BEYOND 
22N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 23N64W TO A 1010 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE REALLY 
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 16N69W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...AND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 
67W.
  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST
OF 60W ARE WELL DEFINED AND EASY TO LOCATE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 38W FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 31N. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A MEDITERRANEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N6W IN NORTHERN MOROCCO
TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 22N13W...TO 16N18W JUST OFF THE
MAURITANIA/SENEGAL BORDER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/ 
SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 18N...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS 
AND INLAND AREAS OF MOROCCO...MAURITANIA...MALI...AND ALGERIA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N32W TO 22N33W TO 19N41W 
TO 12N49W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD FRONT IS 34N36W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 34N36W TO 31N40W 25N50W
AND 22N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...
AND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W.
      
$$
MT