000
AXNT20 KNHC 280507
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N22W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 
37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S50W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S 
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND THE UPPER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE ENTIRE 
GULF N OF 23N GENERATING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL INLAND OVER 
N MISSISSIPPI AND ARKANSAS. UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO 
STREAM ACROSS THE S GULF BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY SHOWER 
ACTIVITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AGAIN REIGN ACROSS THE 
GULF THUS FURTHER LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODERATE/STRONG 
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE 
TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME S 
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E 
OF 83W. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC OVER 
THE E GULF E OF 90W. 

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER RIDGE IN THE E PACIFIC NOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W 
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER E TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W 
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S TO NEAR 14N70W BRINGING 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. A 
SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N69W ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE W ATLC 
NEAR 23N62W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
MAINLY N OF 17N FROM 66W-72W WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 
13N E OF 66W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SE 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE 
TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW AND ADVECTING 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER 
ANTILLES. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE N OF 15N W OF 75W WHILE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER LIGHT/MODERATE SURFACE 
WINDS. 

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO 
BEYOND 32N70W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA 
TO THE UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. A SURFACE 
REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N62W 
ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM W OF 
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL 
ATLC ALONG 45W TO 26N COVERING THE SW AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 
30W-60W. DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 
61W-69W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS N 
OF 26N FROM 35W-55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE 
REGION NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N46W TO 22N55W. AN UPPER 
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 27W TO INLAND OVER 
AFRICA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC E OF THE 
COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH JUST SE OF THE AZORES. AN 
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 9N42W COVERING THE 
TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. 
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED AN AREA OF 
AFRICAN DUST REMAINING FROM 8N-20N E OF 28W INCLUDING THE CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS. 
       
$$
PAW