000 AXNT20 KNHC 272354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N20W EQ30W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-28W...AND FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 33W-36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM EQ-2S BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN FLOW FROM A 1026 MB WRN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N70W IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A 50-70 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO MIAMI FLORIDA PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS S OF 24N. EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ADVECT OVER THE GULF FROM MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 63W-70W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N69W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT E... AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL ALSO CONTINUE. ATLANTIC... A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N70W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG 20-30 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 24N50W 21N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 35W-40W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N24W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 23N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA W OF 75W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. A BROAD RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-65W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 10W-30W. EXPECT THE STRONG NE WINDS NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WELL AS TROUGHING/SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE E ATLC FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA