000 AXNT20 KNHC 261014 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N19W 1N28W 1N50W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-41W AND FROM THE AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO OVER THE E US CONTINUING TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE W GULF W OF 90W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 85W. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. CARIBBEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW JUST SE OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N76W CONTINUING SW TO OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 12N82W BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N FROM 70W-78W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...E CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N FROM 60W-73W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 29N69W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO 33N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 29N. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDS FROM 25N75W SW ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE UPPER LOW SE OF JAMAICA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN W OF THE SW TROUGH AXIS AND N OF 27N. THE ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 29N55W S ALONG 22N61W THEN SW TO THE MONA PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N FROM 65W-76W. AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 25N47W TO 24N64W. GENERALLY UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN 10N-27N WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 29N26W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA ALONG 6W/7W TO 30W AND A SECOND ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N47W. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. $$ PAW